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Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.

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Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson

Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.

The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.

Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."

In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson

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Price: $15.17 [Notify me when price goes down.]

Updated Edition: Thomas L. Friedman is not so much a futurist, which he is sometimes called, as a presentist His aim in The World Is Flat, as in his earlier, influential Lexus and the Olive Tree, is not to give you a speculative preview of the wonders that are sure to come in your lifetime, but rather to get you caught up on the wonders that are already here. The world isn't going to be flat, it is flat, which gives Friedman's breathless narrative much of its urgency, and which also saves it from the Epcot-style polyester sheen that futurists--the optimistic ones at least--are inevitably prey to.

What Friedman means by "flat" is "connected": the lowering of trade and political barriers and the exponential technical advances of the digital revolution that have made it possible to do business, or almost anything else, instantaneously with billions of other people across the planet. This in itself should not be news to anyone. But the news that Friedman has to deliver is that just when we stopped paying attention to these developments--when the dot-com bust turned interest away from the business and technology pages and when 9/11 and the Iraq War turned all eyes toward the Middle East--is when they actually began to accelerate. Globalization 3.0, as he calls it, is driven not by major corporations or giant trade organizations like the World Bank, but by individuals: desktop freelancers and innovative startups all over the world (but especially in India and China) who can compete--and win--not just for low-wage manufacturing and information labor but, increasingly, for the highest-end research and design work as well. (He doesn't forget the "mutant supply chains" like Al-Qaeda that let the small act big in more destructive ways.)

Friedman has embraced this flat world in his own work, continuing to report on his story after his book's release and releasing an unprecedented hardcover update of the book a year later with 100 pages of revised and expanded material. What's changed in a year? Some of the sections that opened eyes in the first edition--on China and India, for example, and the global supply chain--are largely unaltered. Instead, Friedman has more to say about what he now calls "uploading," the direct-from-the-bottom creation of culture, knowledge, and innovation through blogging, podcasts, and open-source software. And in response to the pleas of many of his readers about how to survive the new flat world, he makes specific recommendations about the technical and creative training he thinks will be required to compete in the "New Middle" class. As before, Friedman tells his story with the catchy slogans and globe-hopping anecdotes that readers of his earlier books and his New York Times columns know well, and he holds to a stern sort of optimism. He wants to tell you how exciting this new world is, but he also wants you to know you're going to be trampled if you don't keep up with it. A year later, one can sense his rising impatience that our popular culture, and our political leaders, are not helping us keep pace. --Tom Nissley

Where Were You When the World Went Flat?

Thomas L. Friedman's reporter's curiosity and his ability to recognize the patterns behind the most complex global developments have made him one of the most entertaining and authoritative sources for information about the wider world we live in, both as the foreign affairs columnist for the New York Times and as the author of landmark books like From Beirut to Jerusalem and The Lexus and the Olive Tree. They also make him an endlessly fascinating conversation partner, and we've now had the chance to talk to him about The World Is Flat twice. Read our original interview with him following the publication of the first edition of The World Is Flat to learn why there's almost no one from Washington, D.C., listed in the index of a book about the global economy, and what his one-plank platform for president would be. (Hint: his bumper stickers would say, "Can You Hear Me Now?")

And now you can listen to our second interview, in which he talks about the updates he's made in "The World Is Flat 2.0," including his response to parents who said to him, "Great, Mr. Friedman, I'm glad you told us the world is flat. Now what do I tell my kids?"

The Essential Tom Friedman

From Beirut to Jerusalem

The Lexus and the Olive Tree

Longitudes and Attitudes

More on Globalization and Development

China, Inc. by Ted Fishman	Three Billion New Capitalists by Clyde Prestowitz	The End of Poverty by Jeffrey Sachs
Globalization and Its Discontents by Joseph Stiglitz	The Travels of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy by Pietra Rivoli	The Mystery of Capital by Hernando de Soto

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Price: $9.19 [Notify me when price goes down.]

Corporate executives are struggling with a new trend: people using online social technologies (blogs, social networking sites, YouTube, podcasts) to discuss products and companies, write their own news, and find their own deals. This groundswell is global, it s unstoppable, it affects every industry and it s utterly foreign to the powerful companies running things now.

When consumers you ve never met are rating your company s products in public forums with which you have no experience or influence, your company is vulnerable. In Groundswell, Charlene Li and Josh Bernoff of Forrester, Inc. explain how to turn this threat into an opportunity.

Using tools and data straight from Forrester, you ll learn how to:



-Evaluate new social technologies as they emerge

-Determine how different groups of consumers are participating in social technology arenas

-Apply a four-step process for formulating your future strategy

-Build social technologies into your business including monitoring your brand value, talking with the groundswell through marketing and PR campaigns, and energizing your best customers to recruit their peers

Timely and insightful, this book is required reading for executives seeking to protect and strengthen their company s public image.

"Groundswell is jammed with big ideas, useful stories, and quotable stats. This is the new industrial revolution. Are you on board?"

-Seth Godin, author, Meatball Sundae

"This book will rock your world, if social technology hasn't rocked it already. It's a tsunami of unstoppable force. Amazon, Procter & Gamble, Facebook, Google, and Dell are profiting from the crest of the wave. Are you? Li and Bernoff are the apostles of the tsunami. This book will be your bible."

-Scott Cook, Founder and Chairman of the Executive Committee, Intuit

Groundswell provides practical advice on how to stay nimble and flexible in an ever-morphing digital world. Enabling your company to respond to change quickly especially when talking to and supporting your consumers is essential for business success.

-Cathie Black, President, Hearst Magazines

"The first phase of the Internet was about getting everyone connected. In this next phase, which changes the way we work, live, play, and learn, we re starting to realize the value of those connections as well as the new communications and experiences those interactions lead to the human network. Groundswell effectively documents this shift and underscores the opportunities available to all from this major market transition."

-John T. Chambers, Chairman and CEO, Cisco

"Heed the Groundswell! It's critical reading and helped us master the new dynamics of social media."

-Christina Norman, President, MTV

"Groundswell is a comprehensive look at the tidal wave of change engulfing marketers. Nobody should attempt to engage the newly empowered and emboldened consumer without first hearing what Li and Bernoff have to say on the subject."

-Clark Kokich, CEO, Avenue A | Razorfish

"Social technologies and the groundswell impact every business and organization worldwide. Li and Bernoff have written an insightful book that takes a refreshing research-driven approach to helping businesses transform themselves and successfully navigate this new dynamic landscape."

-Steve Rubel, Senior Vice President, Edelman Digital, and columnist for Advertising Age.
Price: $18.58 [Notify me when price goes down.]

As the new owner of Canon's most advanced intermediate digital SLR, you want to get started taking professional-looking photographs using all of the exciting features at your fingertips "Canon EOS 40D Guide to Digital SLR Photography" is a concise introduction and guide to your camera's essential controls and functions, such as Live View, built-in dust reduction, and the blistering 6.5-frames-per-second continuous shooting mode that is an action photographer’s dream. The book provides detailed instructions showing you how, when, and why to make optimized settings with the Canon EOS 40D’s enhanced menus, which include a half-dozen versatile new custom functions. You'll learn about the camera's improved automatic focus, flash synchronization tricks, how to choose lenses that will provide the perspective and effects you want, and which exposure modes are ideal for each picture-taking opportunity. Packed with full-color images and examples that illustrate the recommended techniques and settings for your Canon EOS 40D, this book helps photographers of any skill level begin maximizing their equipment as soon as you open the cover!.
Price: $17.89 [Notify me when price goes down.]

Scott Kelby was honored with Professional Photographer magazine’s highly coveted 2008 Hot One Award for The Adobe Photoshop CS3 Book for Digital Photographers. Here’s what Jeff Kent, the Hot One Editor at Professional Photographer, has to say about the book: “In a how-to published by Peachpit Press, Scott Kelby, best-selling author on Adobe Photoshop, delves into CS3 to uncover the most important and useful techniques for digital photographers. Our judges liked Kelby’s direct approach with step-by-step instructions. In this new edition, Kelby shares even more secrets from the top pros.”

Shutterbug magazine chose The Adobe Photoshop CS3 Book for Digital Photographers as a Top Digital Book of 2007. Here’s what Joe Farace of Shutterbug has to say about the book: “Scott Kelby’s name on a Photoshop book is like the Dodge brand on the front of a pickup truck. You know it’s built RAM—or pixel—tough. Combining his famous twisted wit with unwaveringly straight tutorials, Kelby takes you through a detailed tour of Photoshop CS3 by showing how to use the new features. No fluff; just page after page of well-illustrated tutorials showing photographers how to get the most out of the new features, commands, and effects found in the latest version of Adobe’s flagship. It will get you up to speed on CS3’s new features faster than you can all by yourself.”

Scott Kelby, the #1 best-selling Photoshop author in the world today, once again takes this book to a whole new level as he uncovers the latest, most important, and most exciting new Adobe Photoshop CS3 techniques for digital photographers. This major update to his award-winning, record-breaking book does something for digital photographers that’s never been done before–it cuts through the bull and shows you exactly “how to do it.” It’s not a bunch of theory; it doesn’t challenge you to come up with your own settings or figure it out on your own. Instead, Scott shows you step-by-step the exact techniques used by today’s cutting-edge digital photographers, and best of all, he shows you flat-out exactly which settings to use, when to use them, and why.

That’s why the previous editions of this book are widely used as the official course study guide in photography courses at college and universities around the world, and this new edition for Photoshop CS3 exposes even more of the top pros’ most closely-guarded secrets.

Learn How The Pros Do It
Each year Scott trains thousands of professional photographers on how to use Photoshop, and almost without exception they have the same questions, the same problems, and the same challenges–and that’s exactly what he covers in this book. You’ll learn:

• The sharpening techniques the pros really use.
• The pros’ tricks for fixing the most common digital photo problems fast!
• How to get great looking prints (that actually match your screen!)
• A whole chapter on the latest, most requested Photoshop special effects!
• How to color correct any photo without breaking a sweat.
• How to process Raw images, plus how to take advantage of all the new Camera Raw features in CS3!
• The portrait retouching secrets only the pros know about!
• How to add real automation to your work.
• How to show your work like a pro!

Plus a host of shortcuts, workarounds, and slick “insider” tricks to send your productivity through the roof! If you’re a digital photographer, and you’re ready to learn the “tricks of the trade”–the same ones that today’s leading pros use to correct, edit, sharpen, retouch, and present their work–then you’re holding the book that will do just that..
Price: $28.74 [Notify me when price goes down.]

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Price: $14.68 [Notify me when price goes down.]

Usability design is one of the most important--yet often least attractive--tasks for a Web developer. In Don't Make Me Think, author Steve Krug lightens up the subject with good humor and excellent, to-the-point examples.

The title of the book is its chief personal design premise. All of the tips, techniques, and examples presented revolve around users being able to surf merrily through a well-designed site with minimal cognitive strain. Readers will quickly come to agree with many of the book's assumptions, such as "We don't read pages--we scan them" and "We don't figure out how things work--we muddle through." Coming to grips with such hard facts sets the stage for Web design that then produces topnotch sites.

Using an attractive mix of full-color screen shots, cute cartoons and diagrams, and informative sidebars, the book keeps your attention and drives home some crucial points. Much of the content is devoted to proper use of conventions and content layout, and the "before and after" examples are superb. Topics such as the wise use of rollovers and usability testing are covered using a consistently practical approach.

This is the type of book you can blow through in a couple of evenings. But despite its conciseness, it will give you an expert's ability to judge Web design. You'll never form a first impression of a site in the same way again. --Stephen W. Plain

Topics covered:

• User patterns
• Designing for scanning
• Wise use of copy
• Navigation design
• Home page layout
• Usability testing

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Price: $22.10 [Notify me when price goes down.]

This thorough, self-paced guide to Adobe Photoshop CS3--written by the experts at Adobe Systems' is ideal for beginning users who want to learn key Photoshop concepts and techniques, while readers who already have some experience with Photoshop can use this book to learn Photoshop CS3's more advanced features and newest tools. Using clear, step-by-step, project-based lessons, each chapter walks readers through the creation of a specific project, with each chapter building on the reader's growing knowledge of the program, while review questions at the end of each chapter reinforce the skills learned in each lesson. Photoshop CS3, long the industry standard for digital imaging software, offers plenty of new features and enhancements for creative professionals and digital photographers alike. Users can enjoy unrivaled editing with non-destructive Smart Filters, improved curves, and adjustable cloning and healing with Preview Overlay. Increase productivity with Photoshop CS3's streamlined interface and new Photoshop Lightroom " integration. Anyone who wants to create a composite will benefit from the revamped Photomerge® tool, which lets you apply automatic layer alignment and blending to your images, while the new Quick Selection tool lets you select pixels not just by color, but by texture and shape as well. And digital photographers will be pleased to know that they can now process multiple Camera Raw images in a fraction of the time it used to take.


Educational instructor notes—created to help teachers plan, organize, and time their lessons—are available for this book (and for other Classroom in a Book titles) at www.peachpit.com/instructorresources.
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Price: $29.97 [Notify me when price goes down.]