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In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have occasionally been asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services in Libya. The purpose of this study is to understand the density of demand within Libya and the extent to which Misurata might be used as a point of distribution within Africa. From an economic perspective, however, Misurata does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries, rather, it represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another. In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for Misurata over the next five years for hundreds of industries, categories and products. The goal of this report is to report the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by Misurata when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite launch vehicles". Clearly, there are no launch pads in Misurata used by the space industry to launch satellites. However, the core benefit of the vehicles (e.g. telecommunications, etc.) is "consumed" by the area served by Misurata. Without Misurata, in other words, the market for satellite launch vehicles would be lower for the population in Libya, Africa, or the world in general. One needs to allocate, therefore, a portion of the worldwide economic demand for launch vehicles to both Africa and Misurata. The data presented are the result of various spatial econometric and time-series forecasting models which, for each category presented, are applied to forecast and allocate demand across all countries of the world and major distribution centers or centers of dominant influence within each country. This is accomplished knowing that economic fundamentals (e.g. income) generally vary from one city to another within a given country over time. In this report, I report the allocation for each category for Misurata as an area of dominant influence in Libya and, potentially, Africa. Important Caveat. Category definitions may overlap. The sum of multiple categories, therefore, may double count..
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Market Potential Estimation Methodology
Overview
This study covers the outlook for products and services in Misurata Estimates reported are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for Misurata across hundreds of categories (in millions of U.S. dollars) and of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a Misurata vis-a-vis the world. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.

This study does not report actual sales data, but give, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E. for a variety of categories. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.

What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?
The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially ex.
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