Books about Uncertainty from Amazon.com

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan..
Price: $15.64 [Notify me when price goes down.]

Freedom from Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder reveals Dr. Jonathan Grayson's revolutionary program to help sufferers make sense of their own compulsions through frank, unflinching self-evaluation-providing the tools, instructions, and knowledge for changing their cycles of overwhelming fear and endless rituals, as well as the courage to do it.

This indispensable book includes:

- Self-assessment tests that guide readers in identifying their specific type of OCD and help track their progress in treatment
- Case studies from Dr. Grayson's revolutionary and profoundly successful treatment program
- Blueprints for programs tailored to particular manifestations of OCD
- Therapy scripts to help individuals develop their own therapeutic voice, to motivate themselves to succeed
- "Trigger sheets" for identifying and planning for obstacles that arise in treatment
- Information on building a support group.
Price: $7.79 [Notify me when price goes down.]

This book by the renowned American Buddhist nun offers short, stand-alone readings designed to help us cultivate compassion and awareness amid the challenges of daily living. Comfortable with Uncertainty does not assume prior knowledge of Buddhist thought or practice, making it a perfect introduction to Pema Chödrön's teaching on lovingkindness, meditation, mindfulness, "nowness," letting go, and working with fear and other painful emotions. More than a collection of thoughts for the day, Comfortable with Uncertainty offers a progressive program of spiritual study, leading the reader through essential concepts, themes, and practices on the Buddhist path..
Price: $2.83 [Notify me when price goes down.]

Werner Heisenberg’s “uncertainty principle” challenged centuries of scientific understanding, placed him in direct opposition to Albert Einstein, and put Niels Bohr in the middle of one of the most heated debates in scientific history. Heisenberg’s theorem stated that there were physical limits to what we could know about sub-atomic particles; this “uncertainty” would have shocking implications. In a riveting account, David Lindley captures this critical episode and explains one of the most important scientific discoveries in history, which has since transcended the boundaries of science and influenced everything from literary theory to television..
Price: $8.16 [Notify me when price goes down.]

�Today, Mr. Minsky's view [of economics] is more relevant than ever.�- The New York Times

.

�Indeed, the Minsky moment has become a fashionable catch phrase on Wall Street.�-The Wall Street Journal

.

John Maynard Keynes offers a timely reconsideration of the work of the revered economics icon. Hyman Minsky argues that what most economists consider Keynesian economics is at odds with the major points of Keynes's The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. Keynes and Minsky refuse to ignore pervasive uncertainty. Once uncertainty is given center stage, recurring episodes of financial system crises are all but inescapable. As Robert Barbera notes in a new preface, �Benign economic circumstances�invite increasingly aggressive financial market wagers. Innovation in finance is a signature development in a capitalist economy. Once leveraged wagers are in place, small disappointments can have exaggerated consequences.� Thus for Minsky economic calm on Main Street engenders financial system fragility which, in turn, ensures a perpetuation of boom and bust cycles.

. .

Minsky colleagues Dimitri B. Papadimitriou and L. Randall Wray write in a new introduction, �We offer this new edition, in the hope that it will contribute to the reformation of economic theory so that it can address the world in which we actually live-the world that was always the topic of Minsky's analysis.�

..
Price: $13.11 [Notify me when price goes down.]

<>The Definitive Guide to Quantifying, Classifying, and Measuring Enterprise IT Security Operations

 

Security Metrics is the first comprehensive best-practice guide to defining, creating, and utilizing security metrics in the enterprise.

 

Using sample charts, graphics, case studies, and war stories, Yankee Group Security Expert Andrew Jaquith demonstrates exactly how to establish effective metrics based on your organization’s unique requirements. You’ll discover how to quantify hard-to-measure security activities, compile and analyze all relevant data, identify strengths and weaknesses, set cost-effective priorities for improvement, and craft compelling messages for senior management.

 

Security Metrics successfully bridges management’s quantitative viewpoint with the nuts-and-bolts approach typically taken by security professionals. It brings together expert solutions drawn from Jaquith’s extensive consulting work in the software, aerospace, and financial services industries, including new metrics presented nowhere else. You’ll learn how to:

 

• Replace nonstop crisis response with a systematic approach to security improvement

• Understand the differences between “good” and “bad” metrics

• Measure coverage and control, vulnerability management, password quality, patch latency, benchmark scoring, and business-adjusted risk

• Quantify the effectiveness of security acquisition, implementation, and other program activities

• Organize, aggregate, and analyze your data to bring out key insights

• Use visualization to understand and communicate security issues more clearly

• Capture valuable data from firewalls and antivirus logs, third-party auditor reports, and other resources

• Implement balanced scorecards that present compact, holistic views of organizational security effectiveness

 

Whether you’re an engineer or consultant responsible for security and reporting to management–or an executive who needs better information for decision-making–Security Metrics is the resource you have been searching for.

 

Andrew Jaquith, program manager for Yankee Group’s Security Solutions and Services Decision Service, advises enterprise clients on prioritizing and managing security resources. He also helps security vendors develop product, service, and go-to-market strategies for reaching enterprise customers. He co-founded @stake, Inc., a security consulting pioneer acquired by Symantec Corporation in 2004. His application security and metrics research has been featured in CIO, CSO, InformationWeek, IEEE Security and Privacy, and The Economist.

 

Foreword         

Preface            

Acknowledgments         

About the Author           

Chapter 1          Introduction: Escaping the Hamster Wheel of Pain          

Chapter 2          Defining Security Metrics           

Chapter 3          Diagnosing Problems and Measuring Technical Security  

Chapter 4          Measuring Program Effectiveness           

Chapter 5          Analysis Techniques     

Chapter 6          Visualization     

Chapter 7          Automating Metrics Calculations

Chapter 8          Designing Security Scorecards  

Index   

 

 

.
Price: $28.56 [Notify me when price goes down.]

This best-selling text by John Taylor, now released in its second edition, introduces the study of uncertainties to lower division science students Assuming no prior knowledge, the author introduces error analysis through the use of familiar examples ranging from carpentry to well-known historic experiments. Pertinent worked examples, simple exercises throughout the text, and numerous chapter-ending problems combine to make the book ideal for use in physics, chemistry, and engineering lab courses. The first edition of this book has been translated into six languages..
Price: $39.40 [Notify me when price goes down.]

Straight talk from the world�s most influential consultant on how to survive and thrive during the global economic meltdown.

Economic turbulence has arrived with a vengeance, and only companies that face it head-on at the. beginning of this world-wide crisis will be the ones left standing once the dust clears. Renowned consultant. Ram Charan traces the causes of this crisis, identifies the essential priorities managers need. to focus on now, and offers clear guidelines for top executives and managers.

.

From executive concerns to finance, marketing, sales, and manufacturing issues, Leadership in the Era of. Economic Uncertainty is the necessary primer for seizing opportunity and preserving profit in today�s. global economy...
Price: $13.48 [Notify me when price goes down.]

Since the first edition of Managing the Unexpected was published in 2001, the unexpected has become a growing part of our everyday lives. The unexpected is often dramatic, as with hurricanes or terrorist attacks. But the unexpected can also come in more subtle forms, such as a small organizational lapse that leads to a major blunder, or an unexamined assumption that costs lives in a crisis. Why are some organizations better able than others to maintain function and structure in the face of unanticipated change?

Authors Karl Weick and Kathleen Sutcliffe answer this question by pointing to high reliability organizations (HROs), such as emergency rooms in hospitals, flight operations of aircraft carriers, and firefighting units, as models to follow. These organizations have developed ways of acting and styles of learning that enable them to manage the unexpected better than other organizations. Thoroughly revised and updated, the second edition of the groundbreaking book Managing the Unexpected uses HROs as a template for any institution that wants to better organize for high reliability..
Price: $14.94 [Notify me when price goes down.]