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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.
Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it. Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong. Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt. The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia. Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan." In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson
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Price: $15.48
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Forces for Good: The Six Practices of High-Impact Nonprofits
An innovative guide to how great nonprofits achieve extraordinary social impact. What makes great nonprofits great? Authors Crutchfield and McLeod Grant searched for the answer over several years, employing a rigorous research methodology which derived from books on for-profits like Built to Last. They studied 12 nonprofits that have achieved extraordinary levels of impact—from Habitat for Humanity to the Heritage Foundation—and distilled six counterintuitive practices that these organizations use to change the world. This book has lessons for all readers interested in creating significant social change, including nonprofit managers, donors and volunteers. Leslie R. Crutchfield (Washington, D.C.) is a managing director of Ashoka and research grantee of the Aspen Institute. Heather McLeod Grant (Palo Alto, CA) is a nonprofit consultant and advisor to Duke University’s Center for the Advancement of Social Entrepreneurship and the Stanford Center for Social Innovation. Crutchfield and Grant were co-founding editors of Who Cares, a national magazine reaching 50,000 readers in circulation between 1993-2000..
Price: $15.50
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Web 2.0: A Strategy Guide: Business thinking and strategies behind successful Web 2.0 implementations.
Web 2.0 makes headlines, but how does it make money? This concise guide explains what's different about Web 2.0 and how those differences can improve your company's bottom line. Whether you're an executive plotting the next move, a small business owner looking to expand, or an entrepreneur planning a startup, Web 2.0: A Strategy Guide illustrates through real-life examples how businesses, large and small, are creating new opportunities on today's Web. This book is about strategy. Rather than focus on the technology, the examples concentrate on its effect. You will learn that creating a Web 2.0 business, or integrating Web 2.0 strategies with your existing business, means creating places online where people like to come together to share what they think, see, and do. When people come together over the Web, the result can be much more than the sum of the parts. The customers themselves help build the site, as old-fashioned "word of mouth" becomes hypergrowth. Web 2.0: A Strategy Guide demonstrates the power of this new paradigm by examining how: Flickr, a classic user-driven business, created value for itself by helping users create their own value Google made money with a model based on free search, and changed the rules for doing business on the Web-opening opportunities you can take advantage of Social network effects can support a business-ever wonder how FaceBook grew so quickly? Businesses like Amazon tap into the Web as a source of indirect revenue, using creative new approaches to monetize the investments they've made in the Web Written by Amy Shuen, an authority on Silicon Valley business models and innovation economics, Web 2.0: A Strategy Guide explains how to transform yourbusiness by looking at specific practices for integrating Web 2.0 with what you do. If you're executing business strategy and want to know how the Web is changing business, this book is for you..
Price: $15.67
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Rebuilding: When Your Relationship Ends, 3rd Edition (Rebuilding Books; For Divorce and Beyond)
Internationally renowned divorce therapist Bruce Fisher and his 700,000-copy bestselling guide, Rebuilding: When Your Relationship Ends, have made the long and difficult process of divorce recovery a lot easier. FisherÆs divorce process rebuilding blocks offer a proven, supportive nineteen-step process for putting oneÆs life back together after divorce. Built on more than two decades of research and practice, Rebuilding reflects feedback from, and the experiences of hundreds of thousands of divorced men and women who have read and used Rebuilding. Clearly the most widely used approach to divorce recovery, FisherÆs rebuilding model has made the divorce process less traumatic, even healthier, for his readers. The third edition, revised and updated with the assistance of psychologist and marriage and family therapist Dr. Robert Alberti, continues BruceÆs tradition of straight-to-the-heart response to the needs of those who are divorcing or divorced..
Price: $10.38
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The Bridge at the Edge of the World: Capitalism, the Environment, and Crossing from Crisis to Sustainability
How serious are the threats to our environment? Here is one measure of the problem: if we continue to do exactly what we are doing, with no growth in the human population or the world economy, the world in the latter part of this century will be unfit to live in. Of course human activities are not holding at current levels—they are accelerating, dramatically—and so, too, is the pace of climate disruption, biotic impoverishment, and toxification. In this book Gus Speth, author of Red Sky at Morning and a widely respected environmentalist, begins with the observation that the environmental community has grown in strength and sophistication, but the environment has continued to decline, to the point that we are now at the edge of catastrophe. Speth contends that this situation is a severe indictment of the economic and political system we call modern capitalism. Our vital task is now to change the operating instructions for today’s destructive world economy before it is too late. The book is about how to do that. .
Price: $17.37
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The Impact Zone: Mastering Golf's Moment of Truth
“Bobby Clampett is one of the most knowledgeable golfing minds in the game.” —Tom Lehman, 1996 British Open Champion, 2006 U.S. Ryder Cup team captain Impact has long been called golf’s “moment of truth,” and great golfers have spent countless hours working on their swings trying to upgrade their impact dynamics as the golf club approaches, contacts, then swings through the ball. For the first time, with The Impact Zone, golfers will have a book that focuses their attention on the very same region of the swing on which professional golfers have always concentrated. The Impact Zone is a unique instructional guide in that everything in it either focuses on or applies to improving a golfer’s understanding and execution of impact. Here, acclaimed professional golfer Bobby Clampett concludes that the overwhelming bias and convention of today’s contemporary teaching environment is to value swing styles over swing dynamics, and in so doing, the overwhelming majority of golf teachers miss the boat in terms of teaching the game effectively. Ultimately this emphasis on swing style comes at the expense of helping golfers to develop sound swing dynamics, which are the real keys to consistent ball striking and better golf. With the help of CBS’s Swing Vision high-speed camera—using images from many of the game’s greatest contemporary players (including Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, John Daly, Vijay Singh, Sergio Garcia, and more)— The Impact Zone takes an unprecedented look at the most important six inches in golf, those that immediately precede, contain, and follow impact. To further demonstrate these principles, Clampett presents photos and drills that convey the five essential dynamics golfers need to produce and reproduce solid impact Throughout these instructional pages, Bobby Clampett—teamed with veteran golf writer Andy Brumer—relays his own personal story of straying from swing dynamics and how he found his way back. He recalls memorable stories from the Tour, blending innovative instruction with his colorful, engaging anecdotes. Clampett and Brumer create an essential instructional guide with clear, concise advice—on creating great swing dynamics through the impact zone—the universally acknowledged key to more consistent and better golf. Advance Praise for The Impact Zone
“I had played many times against Bobby on the PGA Tour and was always impressed with his in-depth approach to the golf swing. But after working with him at CBS for several years, I have come to understand why. The Impact Zone will reveal to the golf world Bobby’s unique insight as to why so many different ‘styled’ golf swings work. God knows my swing isn’t one the named teachers are having their students copy, but it was good enough to win twenty-one PGA Tour events and the ’77 PGA Championship. It’s about time someone finally put in print to refute the myths about ‘style of swing’ and get down to the meat of the matter—impact! It’s no surprise to me that Bobby was the one to get it done right!”
—Lanny Wadkins, lead golf analyst for CBS Sports
“It’s great for all golfers that someone has finally structured an instruction book around dynamic impact. Nor does it surprise me that Bobby Clampett is the one to have done it. He is as good a student of the game as I’ve ever known. What’s more, he was a great player in his day, and his journey as he struggled with his swing, as well as his experience as a commentator and observer of the contemporary game, qualifies him more than most as a teacher to whom all interested in improving their golf games should listen. I know I will. His unique perspective will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the golf world for years to come.”
—Johnny Miller, lead golf analyst for NBC Sports and author of I Call the Shots
“Back when we were both in college, Bobby was a boy genius in golf. For fifteen years as his colleague at CBS, I have continued to be amazed by his comprehensive knowledge of the golf swing. He remains as erudite about the technical nuances of the game as anyone on the planet, and I am thrilled he is now sharing his expertise with the rest of the world!”
—Jim Nantz, CBS Sports golf anchor
“Bobby Clampett is a true and loyal friend as well as one of the most knowledgeable golfing minds in the game. He has always known that the strike is what matters most. What the swing looks like is really of no concern; the quality of the impact between club and ball is the heart of the matter.”
—Tom Lehman, 1996 British Open Champion and 2006 U.S. Ryder Cup team captain .
Price: $9.59
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Point of Impact
He was one the best Marine snipers in Vietnam Today, twenty years later, disgruntled hero of an unheroic war, all Bob Lee Swagger wants to be left alone and to leave the killing behind. But with consummate psychological skill, a shadowy military organization seduces Bob into leaving his beloved Arkansas hills for one last mission for his country, unaware until too late that the game is rigged. The assassination plot is executed to perfection—until Bob Lee Swagger, alleged lone gunman, comes out of the operation alive, the target of a nationwide manhunt, his only allies a woman he just met and a discredited FBI agent. Now Bob Lee Swagger is on the run, using his lethal skills once more—but this time to track down the men who set him up and to break a dark conspiracy aimed at the very heart of America..
Price: $4.10
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Mechanika: Creating the Art of Science Fiction with Doug Chiang
In this stunning collection of step-by-step lessons, award-winning entertainment artist Doug Chiang gives artists the inside scoop on his processes, techniques, and theories for creating eye-popping science fiction artwork. Readers will learn to draw the creatures, robots, vehicles and drama of distant worlds--perennial favorites in film, television, toys and games. With Chiang's expert advice, 25 step-by-step demonstrations using both traditional and digital techniques, and a stunning gallery showcasing his amazing visual style, artists have no choice but to be inspired to create their own phenomenal works of art...
Price: $13.98
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