Books about Prediction from Amazon.com

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan..
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What Will Happen in 2012? Will there be an age of awakening, a new step in human evolution, or even an end to the world we know? For years, archaeologists have known the Mayan calendar predicts this date as the end of an era on Earth. Today, more and more researchers, spiritual explorers, and even scientists are witnessing signs that 2012 will mark a critical shift in the history of our planet. Now, the leading authorities on the 2012 phenomenon present their insights about this enigmatic date.

Featuring essays from 25 renowned experts on the question of 2012, this invaluable anthology examines the mystery from every angle--spiritual, economic, ecological, and scientific--and to decide for yourself whether 2012 will end with a whimper or a bang. In The Mystery of 2012, you will discover the startling predictions and revelations of prominent thinkers, including: * John Major Jenkins' journey to the source for answers--the original Mayan calendar * Gregg Braden's examination of the scientific evidence for a shift in the Earth's magnetic field, and how it will affect all life * Barbara Marx Hubbard's and Peter Russell's explorations of the accelerating pace of evolution--why we may literally be transforming into a new species * Ecologist Joanna R. Macy's vision of "The Great Turning," and how we can take part in this shift to a life-sustaining culture * Daniel Pinchbeck's investigation of the shift of consciousness that will be necessary for humanity to survive 2012 * Jean Houston's predictions on the coming "Jump Time," and her practical advice for dealing with the impact it will have on your life * Corinne MacLaughlin's discussion of using spirituality and consciousness to influence business and political trends.
Price: $12.99 [Notify me when price goes down.]

During the past decade there has been an explosion in computation and information technology. With it have come vast amounts of data in a variety of fields such as medicine, biology, finance, and marketing The challenge of understanding these data has led to the development of new tools in the field of statistics, and spawned new areas such as data mining, machine learning, and bioinformatics. Many of these tools have common underpinnings but are often expressed with different terminology. This book describes the important ideas in these areas in a common conceptual framework. While the approach is statistical, the emphasis is on concepts rather than mathematics. Many examples are given, with a liberal use of color graphics. It should be a valuable resource for statisticians and anyone interested in data mining in science or industry. The book's coverage is broad, from supervised learning (prediction) to unsupervised learning. The many topics include neural networks, support vector machines, classification trees and boosting---the first comprehensive treatment of this topic in any book.

This major new edition features many topics not covered in the original, including graphical models, random forests, ensemble methods, least angle regression & path algorithms for the lasso, non-negative matrix factorization, and spectral clustering. There is also a chapter on methods for ``wide'' data (p bigger than n), including multiple testing and false discovery rates.

Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani, and Jerome Friedman are professors of statistics at Stanford University. They are prominent researchers in this area: Hastie and Tibshirani developed generalized additive models and wrote a popular book of that title. Hastie co-developed much of the statistical modeling software and environment in R/S-PLUS and invented principal curves and surfaces. Tibshirani proposed the lasso and is co-author of the very successful An Introduction to the Bootstrap. Friedman is the co-inventor of many data-mining tools including CART, MARS, projection pursuit and gradient boosting.

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Price: $70.50 [Notify me when price goes down.]

A renowned global futurist prepares businesses and individuals for the radical changes on the horizon

An advisor to three presidents spanning over thirty years, Dr. James Canton identifies probable outcomes and future trends in business, technology, environment, terrorism, population, and medicine to help companies and individuals prepare for the coming complex and volatile global changes, including:
• How climate change and energy trends will reshape the planet
• How astounding medicine trends will enhance people’s lives
• How the rise of China will bring on a new global power struggle

In the tradition of Future Shock, Megatrends, and The Tipping Point, Extreme Future is the essential forecasting handbook for navigating the twenty-first century..
Price: $6.99 [Notify me when price goes down.]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been issuing the essential facts and figures on climate change for nearly two decades. But the hundreds of pages of scientific evidence quoted for accuracy by the media and scientists alike, remain inscrutable to the general public who may still question the validity of climate change.

Esteemed climate scientists Michael E. Mann and Lee R. Kump, have partnered with DK Publishing to present Dire Predictions-an important book in this time of global need. Dire Predictions presents the information documented by the IPCC in an illustrated, visually-stunning, and undeniably powerful way to the lay reader. The scientific findings that provide validity to the implications of climate change are presented in clear-cut graphic elements, striking images, and understandable analogies..
Price: $14.79 [Notify me when price goes down.]

In his seminal works Megatrends and Megatrends 2000, John Naisbitt proved himself one of the most far-sighted and accurate observers of our fast-changing world.

Mind Set! goes beyond that—Mind Set! discloses the secret of forecasting. John Naisbitt gives away the keys to the kingdom, opening the door to the insights that let him understand today's world and see the opportunities of tomorrow. He selects his most effective tools, 11 Mindsets, and applies them by guiding the reader through the five forces that will dominate the next decades of the twenty-first century.

Illustrated by stories about Galileo and Einstein to today's icons and rebels in business, science, and sports, Mind Set! opens your eyes to see beyond media headlines, political slogans, and personal opinions to select and judge what will form the pictures of the future.

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Price: $5.05 [Notify me when price goes down.]

This book is a full-scale exposition of Charles Manski's new methodology for analyzing empirical questions in the social sciences He recommends that researchers first ask what can be learned from data alone, and then ask what can be learned when data are combined with credible weak assumptions. Inferences predicated on weak assumptions, he argues, can achieve wide consensus, while ones that require strong assumptions almost inevitably are subject to sharp disagreements.

Building on the foundation laid in the author's Identification Problems in the Social Sciences (Harvard, 1995), the book's fifteen chapters are organized in three parts. Part I studies prediction with missing or otherwise incomplete data. Part II concerns the analysis of treatment response, which aims to predict outcomes when alternative treatment rules are applied to a population. Part III studies prediction of choice behavior.

Each chapter juxtaposes developments of methodology with empirical or numerical illustrations. The book employs a simple notation and mathematical apparatus, using only basic elements of probability theory.

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Price: $43.99 [Notify me when price goes down.]

The periodic table is one of the most potent icons in science It lies at the core of chemistry and embodies the most fundamental principles of the field. The one definitive text on the development of the periodic table by van Spronsen (1969), has been out of print for a considerable time. The present book provides a successor to van Spronsen, but goes further in giving an evaluation of the extent to which modern physics has, or has not, explained the periodic system. The book is written in a lively style to appeal to experts and interested lay-persons alike.
The Periodic Table begins with an overview of the importance of the periodic table and of the elements and it examines the manner in which the term 'element' has been interpreted by chemists and philosophers. The book then turns to a systematic account of the early developments that led to the classification of the elements including the work of Lavoisier, Boyle and Dalton and Cannizzaro. The precursors to the periodic system, like Dobereiner and Gmelin, are discussed. In chapter 3 the discovery of the periodic system by six independent scientists is examined in detail.
Two chapters are devoted to the discoveries of Mendeleev, the leading discoverer, including his predictions of new elements and his accommodation of already existing elements. Chapters 6 and 7 consider the impact of physics including the discoveries of radioactivity and isotopy and successive theories of the electron including Bohr's quantum theoretical approach. Chapter 8 discusses the response to the new physical theories by chemists such as Lewis and Bury who were able to draw on detailed chemical knowledge to correct some of the early electronic configurations published by Bohr and others.
Chapter 9 provides a critical analysis of the extent to which modern quantum mechanics is, or is not, able to explain the periodic system from first principles. Finally, chapter 10 considers the way that the elements evolved following the Big Bang and in the interior of stars. The book closes with an examination of further chemical aspects including lesser known trends within the periodic system such as the knight's move relationship and secondary periodicity, as well at attempts to explain such trends..
Price: $22.69 [Notify me when price goes down.]

Now in its third edition, Criminal Profiling is established as an industry standard text. It moves evidence-based criminal profiling into a full embrace of the scientific method with respect to examining and interpreting behavioral evidence. If focuses on criminal profiling as an investigative and forensic process, helping to solve crime through an honest understanding of the nature and behavior of the most violent criminals. Throughout the text, the author outlines specific principles and practice standards for Behavioral Evidence Analysis, focusing on the application of theory and method to real cases.

Criminal Profiling, Third Edition, is an ideal companion for students and professionals alike, including investigators, forensic scientists, criminologists, mental health professionals, and attorneys. With contributing authors representing law enforcement, academic, mental health, and forensic science communities, it offers a balanced perspective not found in other books on this subject. Readers will use it as a comprehensive reference text, a handbook for evaluating physical evidence, a tool to bring new perspectives to cold cases, and as an aid in preparing for criminal trials.

* Best-selling author Brent Turvey defines the deductive profiling method, which focuses on examining the nature and behavior of criminals in order to solve crimes
* Contributing authors represent law enforcement, academic, mental health, and forensic science communities for a balanced perspective
* Completely revised with 35% new material including updates on the latest advances in evidence-based profiling

New to this edition
* New cases in every chapter
* New chapters in logic and reasoning
* New chapter reviewing non-evidence based profiling methods
* New chapter on mass homicide
* New chapter on terrorist profiling and interviewing.
Price: $54.02 [Notify me when price goes down.]