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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below. Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it. Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong. Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt. The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia. Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan." In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson
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Price: $14.93
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The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing
A comprehensively updated edition of an essential guide to stock market investing For over a decade, Jason Kelly has provided investors with the insider knowledge and time-tested strategies they need to maximize their investment programs. This thoroughly updated edition of The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing includes: • Kelly’s Maximum Midcap Strategy, an innovative investment program that consistently outperforms the market • Real-life examples of investment strategies that paid big dividends • Tips from master investors like Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, and Bill Miller An accessible, intelligent, and highly effective approach to investing, The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing is an invaluable resource for investors everywhere..
Price: $8.42
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The Giver
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Jim Cramer's Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World
How do we find hot stocks without getting burned? How do we fatten our portfolios and stay financially healthy? Former hedge-fund manager and longtime Wall Street commentator Jim Cramer explains how to invest wisely in chaotic times, and he does so in plain English in a style that is as much fun as investing is -- or should be, when it's done right. For starters, Cramer recommends devoting a portion of your assets to speculation. Everyone wants to find the big winners that can bring outsized gains, and Cramer explains how to allocate your portfolio so that you can afford to take this kind of risk wisely. He explains why "buy and hold" is a losing philosophy: For Cramer, it's "buy and homework." If you can't spend an hour a week researching each of your stocks, then you should hand off your portfolio to a mutual fund -- and Cramer identifies the very few mutual funds that he'd recommend. Cramer reveals his Ten Commandments of Trading (Commandment #5: Tips are for waiters). He explains why he's not afraid to compare investing to gambling (and tells you which book on gambling you should read to become a better investor). He discloses his Twenty-Five Rules of Investing (Rule #4: Look for broken stocks, not broken companies). Cramer shows how to compare stock prices in a way that you can understand, how to spot market tops and bottoms, how to know when to sell, how to rotate among cyclical stocks to catch the big moves, and much more. Jim Cramer's Real Money is filled with insider advice that really works, information that Cramer himself used to make millions during his fourteen-year career on Wall Street. Written in Cramer's distinctive turbocharged style, this is every investor's guide to what you really must know to make big money in the stock market. .
Price: $14.98
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Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude
Maximizing the trader's state of mind is the key to successful results. Conflicts, contradictions and paradoxes in thinking can spell disaster for even a highly motivated, astute and well grounded trader. Mark Douglas, a trader, personal trading coach, and industry consultant since 1982, sends the message that "thinking strategy" will profoundly influence a trader's success rate. Douglas addresses five very specific issues to give traders the insight and understanding about themselves that will make them consistent winners in the market. Trading In The Zone offers specific solutions to the people factor of commodity price movement. It uncovers the true culprit for lack of consistency when it comes to stock picking: lack of focus and self-confidence. Through simple exercises, traders will learn how to think in terms of probabilities, and adopt the specific beliefs necessary to developing a winner's mindset. Along the way, they'll gain valuable insights into their own entrenched misconceptions about the market. Backed by compelling examples, Trading In The Zone adds a new dimension to getting an edge on the market. Through a better understanding of themselves, as well as of Wall Street's realities, traders will come to leverage the power of their psyche for unprecedented profitability. .
Price: $23.95
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Way of the Turtle: The Secret Methods that Turned Ordinary People into Legendary Traders
“We're going to raise traders just like they raise turtles in Singapore ” So trading guru Richard Dennis reportedly said to his long-time friend William Eckhardt nearly 25 years ago. What started as a bet about whether great traders were born or made became a legendary trading experiment that, until now, has never been told in its entirety. Way of the Turtle reveals, for the first time, the reasons for the success of the secretive trading system used by the group known as the “Turtles.” Top-earning Turtle Curtis Faith lays bare the entire experiment, explaining how it was possible for Dennis and Eckhardt to recruit 23 ordinary people from all walks of life and train them to be extraordinary traders in just two weeks. Only nineteen years old at the time-the youngest Turtle by far-Faith traded the largest account, making more than $30 million in just over four years. He takes you behind the scenes of the Turtle selection process and behind closed doors where the Turtles learned the lucrative trading strategies that enabled them to earn an average return of over 80 percent per year and profits of more than $100 million. You'll discover - How the Turtles made money-the principles that guided their trading and the step-by-step methods they followed
- Why, even though they used the same approach, some Turtles were more successful than others
- How to look beyond the rules as the Turtles implemented them to find core strategies that work for any tradable market
- How to apply the Turtle Way to your own trades-and in your own life
- Ways to diversify your trading and limit your exposure to risk
Offering his unique perspective on the experience, Faith explains why the Turtle Way works in modern markets, and shares hard-earned wisdom on taking risks, choosing your own path, and learning from your mistakes. .
Price: $14.65
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Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Wiley Investment Classics)
Stock investing is a relatively recent phenomenon and the inventory of true classics is somewhat slim. When asked, people in the know will always list books by Benjamin Graham, Burton G. Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street, and Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings by Philip A. Fisher. You'll know you're getting really good advice if they also mention Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is the thinly disguised biography of Jesse Livermore, a remarkable character who first started speculating in New England bucket shops at the turn of the century. Livermore, who was banned from these shady operations because of his winning ways, soon moved to Wall Street where he made and lost his fortune several times over. What makes this book so valuable are the observations that Lefèvre records about investing, speculating, and the nature of the market itself. For example: "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon." If you've ever spent weekends and nights puzzling over whether to buy, sell, or hold a position in whatever investment--be it stock, bonds, or pork bellies, you'll be glad that you read this book. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is full of lessons that are as relevant today as they were in 1923 when the book was first published. Highly recommended. --Harry C. Edwards.
Price: $10.53
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A Beginner's Guide to Day Trading Online (2nd edition)
Day trading is highly profitableÑand highly tumultuous Moreover, the financial markets have changed considerably in recent years. Expert author Toni Turner gives you the latest information on mastering the markets, including: - Decimalization of stock prices
- New trading products such as E-minis and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
- Precision entries and exits
The new breed of trader Written in an accessible, step-by-step manner, A BeginnerÕs Guide to Day Trading Online, 2nd Edition shows how to day trade stocks in todayÕs market..
Price: $9.58
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